As Trump’s threat to the Russian trading partners affects India: NPR

Oil tanker trucks are sitting near the refinery, which is managed by Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. In Mumbai, India.

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New -Deli – President Trump announced new tariffs In India, but warned India that there is more punishment for the purchase of fuel and weapons in Russia.

The United States imposes 25% of Indian goods rates starting in August, Trump said on social networks On Wednesday. In addition, he added: “They always bought the vast majority of military equipment from Russia, and is the largest Russian buyer of energy, along with China, while everyone wants Russia to stop murder in Ukraine.” He said it would be a penalty.

Earlier this month, Trump warned Russia to end his war in Ukraine, otherwise its trading partners will be amazed at 100% of “secondary tariffs”. This came when US legislators worked on a bill that would allow even more to be punished up to 500% of tariffs.

India is now the largest customer of Russian crude oil in volume, according to the Finnish Analytical Center for Energy and Pure Air Research Center. China remains the biggest buyer by dollar.

Here’s a look at how threats can affect India, Chief American partner with one of the largest economies of Asia.

“Double standards” or tactics?

The threat of Trump’s President against Russia and its trading partners was met with opposition to New Deel. Last week, India Foreign Minister Vikram Mr. Misri said that there are “double standards” in the threats of Trump to punish Russia’s trading partners. Mrsri did not detail, but it can be a reference to members European Union and others that continue to import fuel from Russia directly or indirectly.

Indian Foreign Minister, Wikram Mri, performs during a press briefing in New Deel on May 10.

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But analysts say that India, one of Asia’s largest economies, may not have large levers. India uses surplus trade with the United States, which is the largest export market of India. In addition, a similar threat in the United States worked in the past: during Trump’s first presidency in 2019, India stopped import Oil from Iran after Trump has imposed sanctions on Tehran for his nuclear program.

Moscow’s threats may not be crippled by the Russian economy as the United States hopes, says Matt GertkenBCA Research’s main geopolitical strategist, an American investment firm. After the previous Western sanctions on Moscow for its war in Ukraine, according to him, Russia created “shadow fleet“Tankers-in the essence of extraneous intermediaries, for the delivery of oil to its importers.

Gertken says that Trump’s secondary tariff threat is probably the short -term negotiation tactics. And to avoid a blow, India is likely to capitulate – and can try to buy oil from a shadow fleet like a bloomberg Reports This was done in the past.

“After the primary counter -reports in India, there will be business interests that would say:” Well, it would be better if we have partially applied these sanctions, received compensation from the United States and agreed on a trade agreement, “says Gertken.

Imports of raw oil in Russia lasts decades

India increased imports when Russia offered oil at a reduced price after the Kremlin’s full -scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Today, more than a third of raw oil is imported by India-from Moscow. But as the Minister of Oil of India, Hardep Singh PuriHe recently noted that he also imports from almost 40 other countries. “I don’t worry at all”, Puri saidReferring to the threat of Trump to impose secondary tariffs. “If something happens, we’ll deal with it.”

Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of Oil of India, during the India Conference of Energy Week in New Sent on February 11.

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Then the real harm will be to diplomatic ties between India and the US, says Anups ManurProfessor of Economics in The institution was tailedBengur -based Bengur and Public Policy School.

“There has always been a section of Indian society that said that the US is the best and most natural ally of India,” says Manur. “But more and more the United States continues to threaten India with sanctions where they do not agree with the interests of India.”

Many in India cheered after Trump was re -elected to the White House. Its ”friendship“With the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi is expected to lead to the golden age of partnership against their common opponent, China.

In recent months, many Indians have been surprised by a number of actions and lawsuits of the Trump administration. This year, the United States abolished Indian students’ visas and deported Indian immigrants who lacked legal status in the US in handcuffs. Trump contradicted the India government for help claiming mediation ceasefire between India and Pakistan, using trade talks as levers.

Regardless of whether India stops trade with Russia, there is a risk of increasing oil costs. And the average Indian consumer is likely to carry the burden while there is growing Research equipment saying Most Indians have little money for discretionary expenses.

Will it cost India “Teflon“Prime Minister is politically? Manur does not think.

“Oil has always been understood as an external factor and that the current government really has no control,” he says. “In India of the Party lose elections because of Prices in onionsNot oil. “